The dust has settled in the Gaza strip as an Egyptian-brokered truce has taken hold. The flare up in violence may cause some to despair. It seems that the lessons were not learned from the previous war has not been learned and once again civilians were the losers. But looking closely at the recent conflict reveals that this time, there were significant differences which may one day help towards a long-term settlement.
The worldwide perception of Israel came out much better than in 2009- a strange scenario given that they initiated the conflict. The assassination of Ahmed Jabari was also a strange choice given the lull in hostilities and it has yet to emerge what the exact rationale was for his assassination, given the context and time. However this man was a long time enemy of Israel, publicly committed to kidnapping as many Israeli soldiers as possible, to use in prisoner exchanges. The manner of his death was a sure Israeli show of force. Spies deep within the Hamas network were able to pinpoint his exact location, to a car fitted with a secret tracking device.
The nature of the Israeli bombardment was also much more ‘clean’ and ‘precise’, insofar as an air bombardment can be. Somewhere in the region of 1500 targeted strikes during the few days killed fewer than 200 people, a sizeable number of which were Hamas fighters. This demonstrates that the real targets were weaponry, rocket sites and supply tunnels. Tragic as the civilian deaths were, and there were civilian deaths, it takes concentrated effort to reduce them to this level. The Israeli military has demonstrated a visible effort to reduce the number of women and children killed. This was a success for Israel. They did not draw nearly as much condemnation as before.
In fact, the world rhetoric was considerably mild towards the Israeli side. Barack Obama spoke strongly of Israel’s right to defend itself from rocket attacks and did not condemn the air strikes as much as might have been expected. However he may be left with little choice, as his position of moral authority is considerably weakened with mounting criticism of his drone campaign.
The Israeli campaign was one based on intelligence and technology. Their means of pin-pointing the location of Hamas rocket-sites, arms dumps and even the real-time location of leaders was based on technology and human spies. The buzz of drones hanging over Gaza was always present and the street execution of six alleged spies was evidence of a growing Hamas frustration with the level of infiltration. The Iron Dome also received its first baptism of fire and was as successful as was hoped.
The decision not to conduct a ground war was a wise one. It was probably an obvious choice following the2009 war. Barging into a crowded urban territory behind a wall of fire only leads to needless deaths. Prolonging the war would also have rallied the Palestinians around Hamas further. Although they are the dominant party in Gaza it is not without dissent from people who want to move towards a deal for peace, as well as more radical factions.
Essentially, the conduct of the war has shown Israel to be a rational and legitimate actor to all except those fundamentally aligned with the Palestinian cause. They inflicted significant losses on their enemy but demonstrated some restraint in front of the world. Hamas, on the other hand, conducted the usual indiscriminate bombardment of Israel. Its legitimacy in the eyes of the world is now even more questionable. It has also cornered itself as it is unable to inflict any worthwhile damage on Israel while having to sustain huge punishment to its own infrastructure. For Hamas there may be no way forward as long as it refuses to recognise Israel. It can merely pose an inconvenience to the lives of some Israelis in largely futile attacks.
This is a long way from the ultimate solution: Israel lifting its blockade and Hamas recognising Israel. In the past few days, Israel has allowed Gaza fishermen out beyond their previous limit, and relaxed the tension around border areas by allowing local famers near Israeli soil. However the choking blockade still remains in place and is likely to for the foreseeable future. The current talks will be concerned with relaxing the blockade in return for the safety of Southern Israel from rockets. Behind their defensive shield and capable military, it is Israel who are in the favourable position.
Irish News Review 